Monday, April 25, 2016

End of Season Theatrics

Ahhhh, it is that time again. The end of another Premier League season. It is 1000% a terrible thing. I will no longer have the excuse to lay in my bed for 6 hours on Saturday and Sunday. More importantly, the only news that will come is news about what players will go to the top teams in Europe. All of which, will lead to about 90% of those rumors being completely wrong. But besides the depressing thoughts that are looming in my head about the season ending, this time of the season is as wild as it gets. Over the years, the last several weeks have been massive for a variety of teams. Let me explain what I mean. So in the Premier League there are several races going on to end the year. There is the obvious race to win the league itself. Then there is the relegation battle, in which 3 teams at the bottom of the table get demoted. Lastly, there is another race which is the race for finishing in the top 4. Why? Well the top 4 teams qualify for the Champions League. Champions League brings in millions of dollars in revenue. Furthermore, it is a vital in terms of recruiting top-class players.

So let's recap what is going on right now in the league. To the right here you can see the table. Leicester, who were 2500/1 favorites to win the league, are one win away from winning the league. To put that in perspective, the Cleveland Browns are 200/1 favorites to win the Super Bowl this upcoming year. But this race is pretty much over. There is only the slightest chance that Tottenham Hotspurs can catch Leicester.

They call this day Survival Sunday for a reason. Let's take a look at the bottom of the table. As you see, there are three teams (from 17th place to 19th) that are 1 point apart from each other for the 17th place haven of avoiding relegation. Now this race, in past years has been as intriguing as that at the top. Teams are clawing to do anything possible to not get relegated and lose the advertising money of the Premier League. Sunderland (17) and Norwich (18) have one game in hand over Newcastle (19). With that, though, Sunderland plays Stoke, Chelsea, Everton and Watford. Norwich plays Arsenal, Manchester United, Watford and Everton. Lastly, Newcastle plays Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Tottenham. From that, my favorite to stay up is Newcastle. Although they are a game ahead and a point behind. They have by far the easiest games remaining. Both Norwich and Sunderland face 4 teams that have quality squads and a point to prove. Meanwhile, Newcastle is almost guaranteed three points against Aston Villa who has been terrible and is in dead last and Crystal Palace, which will be a toss up. One thing to keep in mind, is goal differential. Which is on this table as "GD". It is the difference between goals scored and goals allowed. As you can see Sunderland is far superior to the other two teams, but if it were to come down to Norwich and Newcastle it could get very interesting because, as you can see, the goal differential is only one between the two.

Lastly, there is the race for 4th which much like the race for 17th. There is a three team race for the 3rd and 4th place. Manchester City (3), Arsenal (4) and Manchester United (5). Again, you can see that United has a one game advantage but are currently 5 points out of that 4th place spot. Yet there is a huge twist in this whole race. Manchester City and Arsenal play each other. As such, it would only make sense that one of those teams drops points. As such, if Manchester United wins out the remaining four games, they will finish top 4. Manchester City have the toughest route just because of the games they have to play and the fact that they are in the Semi-finals of the Champions League. With that, though, I think that United will win out and Arsenal will miss out on top 4 (yes I am 100% biased and I don't care)


So I know I talked up the last days of the season. Here are some crazy videos that show the last day of the season and how much the last day can end up meaning. First, this video kills me to watch. But, here's is the background. Manchester United had won their last game of the season in 2012. Manchester City were losing 2-1 to QPR in the last minute and had to win in order to be crowned Champions. At this point, it is clear that United is going to win the league. But, against all odds, this happened:



Here is a video of the relegation zone battle in 2004-2005:


I think it is safe to say that this year's endings will come down to similar situations. Let's all hope that United is on the celebratory end this time.


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